Okay, breathe deeply. Five months out, lots can change, et cetera, et cetera.

Obama leads McCain in Florida.

I'm surprised by this, because while Florida is constantly referred to as a swing state, the fact is that in 2004, it wasn't really ever in doubt that Bush would carry Florida, we have a Republican governor, a heavily-Republican legislature, and while we have a Democratic Senator, he's one of those who's known for deserting the caucus in an hour of need and he won a resounding victory in 2006 because he drew Katherine Harris as his opponent. Yes, we've had some congressional success in the last couple of years, and we have hopes for more, but I didn't expect that we'd really be competitive in Florida.

A new poll out today from Quinnipiac University shows Barack Obama leading John McCain in Florida 47 percent to 43 percent.

The four-point lead is within the poll's margin of error (plus or minus 2.6 percentage points), but it's still significant because it represents a turnaround from most recent polls showing McCain leading in Florida.

Obama is enjoying strong support from women, blacks and younger voters.

The poll isn't all good news for Obama. While he has the support of 95 percent of black voters in Florida, he trails among white voters.
The white voters thing, especially among males, isn't a big deal, as I've mentioned before. And Crist as VP doesn't change anything, apparently.
Charlie Crist wouldn't be much help to McCain as his vice presidential candidate.

The numbers: 58 percent say it would make no difference, 21 percent say they'd be less likely to vote for McCain, and 16 percent say they'd be more likely to vote for him.
And that was before Crist said yesterday that he was in favor of drilling off the coast. Those numbers could easily go down from there.

So yeah--Florida is competitive. That spreads the field even more for McCain, because while Obama can win without us, McCain can't, barring a major shift in the country between now and November. Now, it's early yet, so I'm not getting confident, but I am hopeful.

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