October surprises will lose some of their oomph if this keeps up.
Election experts predict that a third of the electorate will already have voted by Nov. 4, up from 15 percent in 2000 and 20 percent in 2004, according to the Associated Press. In Florida, 40 percent of the electorate is expected to vote early.You take that much of the electorate out of the decision making process before election day and the chances for a massive swing based on a last-minute story go down enormously. The October surprise only works if there's a chance to engineer a last-minute swing, after all, because usually it's a dishonest story that won't hold up to scrutiny, so the users of October surprises are caught in a quandary--how soon to release the story? Release it too soon and you're outed as a phony. Wait too long and you've already lost the game.
The rest of the piece is interesting as well--it points out that Democratic turnout on the Gulf Coast is high, which bodes well for Democrats across the state. 8 days left.