Caucus Blogging III: The Search for Cauc (and a Random Ten)
Emily and I went out for drinks last night in order to avoid the inevitable sittin' in front of the TV, waiting to see how the caucuses turned out. I know myself well enough to know that I wouldn't have had any fun if we'd stayed home last night.
Before we left, I offered up my predictions-- Obama and Huckabee would win in their respective parties, Clinton and McCain would win second place, Giuliani and Edwards would be ruled out completely.
Obviously, some of this stuff happened-- namely, the stuff that was easy to predict. Anyone who'd been paying any attention for the past few weeks could have predicted the Obama and Huckabee stuff-- the question wasn't really whether they would win, but by how much. Similarly, Giuliani seems to have forgotten that he's running for president, and to their credit, the rest of America seems to have forgotten too. Good riddance to bad rubbish.
But I admit, I was surprised at McCain's poor showing-- others much more clever than I am have already made jokes about losing to Fred Thompson's reanimated corpse, but it bears repeating that this isn't such a good time to be John McCain. He should have done better in Iowa; no doubt, he was counting on doing better in Iowa. It didn't happen, and now it's hard to imagine that he's going to recover. He could, of course-- but it's gonna be an uphill climb.
Even more interesting is the Edwards-Clinton virtual tie for second place behind Obama. I know he's very popular in the blogosphere, but I really expected Edwards to get his ass handed to him last night. I expected that Obama was going to have a strong showing initially, but then when the Kucinich-Dodd-Biden-Richardson voters (all six of them) had to decide on a viable candidate to support, they'd throw their weight behind Obama rather than Edwards. And conservative Democrats would back Clinton. Obviously, this didn't quite happen-- either there really weren't that many supporters of second-tier Democratic candidates who had to reconsider their votes, or Obama and Edwards both appealed to them. Either way, it wasn't a very good night to be Senator Clinton, who I think was probably counting on a strong second-place finish to propel her towards victory in New Hampshire. Last night was a big night for Obama, but it's hardly decisive when it comes to predicting who will get the nomination.
As some of you know, I'm not a big John Edwards fan, for a variety of reasons. But I was glad to see that he had a strong showing last night-- I think it goes to show that the interests he's been espousing these past few months (health care, ending the occupation, etc.) are pivotal issues for a lot of people, and that the other Democratic candidates had damn sure better pay attention if they want to win the nomination. I may not tend to think Edwards would be a great choice for president, but if he can push the national conversation a little to the left, he'll have performed a valuable for service for his country.
Here's my Random Ten. If you don't know how this is done by now, just fucking figure it out.
1) "Radio Radio"-- Elvis Costello
2) "Piazza, New York Catcher"-- Belle and Sebastian
3) "God Only Knows"-- The Beach Boys
4) "Superstar"-- Sonic Youth
5) "Pills and Soap"== Elvis Costello
6) "Look Away"-- Blake Babies
7) "At My Most Beautiful"-- R.E.M.
8) "Karma Chameleon"-- Culture Club
9) "Set the Twilight Reeling"-- Lou Reed
10) "Mailman (The Lying Song)"-- John Cale